After Shutdown and Tech Sell-Off, All Eyes Turn to Retail Earnings
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Q3 Earnings growth currently stands at 13.1% with 92% of S&P 500® constituents reporting thus far1
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Our proprietary LERI metric indicates that US corporations are feeling quite confident in their position as we head into the New Year
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This week we get results from retailers: WMT, TGT, TJX, ROST, HD, LOW, as well as results from AI darling Nvidia
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Earnings season winds down from here, with only 847 global companies expected to report this week
Mixed Fortunes for Recent IPOs Amid Broader Tech Market Sell-Off
Tech stocks moved sharply to the downside the second half of last week as the AI names seemingly got repriced. Concerns about a bubble were reignited in the wake of tech earnings and large increases in spending to support AI expansion.
First time quarterly earnings from companies that have recently IPO'd were also in focus last week, and the results were mixed. Disappointing results for Gemini Space Station, StubHub and Via Transportation, causing those stocks to tumble after their earnings reports. GEMI fell to its lowest level since debuting in September due to mounting expenses.2 StubHub's stock cratered 24% on Friday after the company declined to provide guidance for the fourth quarter.3 VIA beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom-line, but still seemed to get swept up in the broader tech sell-off when they reported on Thursday, with the stock falling over 20% in the trading session following the report.4
On the bright side, Figure Technology and Legence Corp posted better-than-expected results that resonated with investors. Blockchain-based lender, FIGR, was able to surpass revenue expectations which showed YoY growth of 42%, and net income grew 227% from the year ago period.5 As a result the stock climbed 10% in after-hours trading on Thursday. HVAC company, LGN, actually missed on the bottom-line, but delivered on revenue and announced a deal to acquire The Bowers Group to fuel future growth.6 That stock was up over 10% following the report.
After the Shutdown: Tracking the Delayed Economic Data
Now that the longest government shutdown in history is over, many investors are left wondering when we will get those weeks of missed economic data. Agencies under the departments of Labor and Commerce had not posted revised schedules as of early afternoon on Friday, but updates are expected soon. We turned to our partners at Econoday for more clarity.
Theresa Sheehan, US Economist at Econoday, said in a report published Thursday (November 13), "The statistical agencies will need a few days to get back to work, determine the best course of action, and make their announcements. Some reports will appear more quickly. The September monthly employment report was largely complete at the start of the shutdown and could be released in short order. State data on weekly jobless claims has been accumulating and could be compiled and released with little further delay. Most of the rest of the reports will require longer efforts to get back on track."7
Sheehan also warned that "A few of the monthly reports may end up being skipped as preferable to an accelerated release schedule. However, the data that would have been included in those reports will be compiled and added to government databases."8
Read more from Ms. Sheehan here, on when we can expect to get these new economic release dates.
US CEO Uncertainty Indicator Shows Lowest Reading Ever
The Q3 earnings season started off with corporate confidence that was the highest we've ever recorded for Q4 (when companies report their earnings for the prior quarter), as measured by our Late Earnings Report Index (LERI). With the season all but over, we are ending with the lowest post-peak reading of the LERI since we began collecting this data in 2018, a sign that Corporate America is feeling very comfortable with their future earnings potential.
The LERI tracks outlier earnings date changes among publicly traded companies with market capitalizations of $250M and higher. The LERI has a baseline reading of 100, and anything above that indicates that companies are feeling uncertain about their current and short-term prospects. A LERI reading under 100 suggests that companies feel they have a pretty good handle on the near-term.
The official post-peak season LERI reading for Q3 earnings season (data collected in Q4) stands at 63. As of November 14, there were 112 late outliers and 160 early outliers.
Source: Wall Street Horizon
Retailers Round out the Earnings Season
There is certainly an irony in the fact that CEOs are feeling more confident as we wrap up 2025, all while recent consumer sentiment data shows US shoppers are feeling just the opposite. The latest reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed the second-worst reading in its nearly 80-year track record.9
We'll see what retailers are saying about the health of the US consumer when they begin to report results this week. All eyes will be on earnings releases from Home Depot on Tuesday, Lowe's, Target, TJX Companies, and Williams-Sonoma on Wednesday, and Walmart, Ross Stores and Gap on Thursday.
Investors will also be looking for more clarity on the AI trade when Nvidia releases its highly anticipated results on Wednesday, November 19.
Q3 Earnings Wave
Peak earnings season for the third quarter is officially in the rearview mirror, with only 847 expected to release results this week. Thus far, 77% of companies have reported earnings (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names).
Source: Wall Street Horizon
The Bottom Line
With peak earnings season now in the rearview mirror, the market's focus shifts from broad-based results to specific, unresolved questions. Last week's tech sell-off and mixed IPO fortunes have put a spotlight on valuations, making Nvidia's upcoming report a critical test for the entire AI sector. Simultaneously, the stark disconnect between record-high CEO confidence and record-low consumer sentiment will be tested as retail behemoths like Home Depot, Target, and Walmart release their results, offering a direct view into the health of US shoppers.
1 FactSet Earnings Insight, John Butters, November 14, 2025, https://advantage.factset.com
2 "Gemini Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results," November 10, 2025, https://investors.gemini.com
3 "StubHub Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results," November 13, 2025, https://investors.stubhub.com
4 "Via Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results," November 13, 2025, https://investors.ridewithvia.com
5 "Figure Technology Solutions Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results," November 13, 2025, https://investors.figure.com
6 "Legence Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results," November 14, 2025, https://investors.wearelegence.com
7 "With US Reopening, Awaiting New Economic Release Dates," Econoday, Theresa Sheehan, November 13, 2025, https://www.econoday.com
8 "With US Reopening, Awaiting New Economic Release Dates," Econoday, Theresa Sheehan, November 13, 2025, https://www.econoday.com
9 Preliminary Results for November 2025, University of Michigan, November 14, 2025, https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
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