From Black Friday to Fed Wednesday: The Year-End Data Investors Must Watch

• Official data is back on, with jobs, spending, and sentiment readings in the queue ahead of the Fed meeting

• Macro reports are in focus now that an impressive Q3 earnings season is in the books

• Economic data paired with recent corporate body language lay the groundwork for how investors should position heading into 2026

Plenty of official economic data is already coming down the market's chimney, much to the delight of our partners at Econoday. Now that the pesky government shutdown is over, the pace of macro updates is set to accelerate as we head into the end of 2025.

We already received key November purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) earlier this week. Then, this morning's ADP private-sector employment report shed new light on the health of that swath of the labor market.

A Frosty Look at the Jobs Environment

Thursday and Friday could be particularly revealing regarding employment. According to our Economic Calendar, first thing Thursday morning (December 4) comes the in-vogue Challenger Job Cuts report. Recall that for October, the aggregate number of announced layoff intentions soared to the most since 2003 for that month. Of course, Challenger's monthly tallies were higher this past February and March, when federal government employment took a hit courtesy of the Department of Government Efficiency's efforts.

Thursday also provides a timely glimpse into the trend of applications for unemployment benefits. Take this week's Initial and Continuing Claims data with a grain of salt, though, as there's notorious trouble with properly accounting for holiday-week dynamics. Nevertheless, Initial Claims remain sanguine, while Continuing Claims hover near the highest level in four years. "Slow to hire, slow to fire"—no changes on that macro front.

Leftovers on the Economic Table

This week's data twist plays out on Friday (December 5). Stale data hits the tape at 10 a.m. ET by way of September Personal Income and Spending numbers. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation barometer—the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index—is often the market-moving detail.

Maybe not so much this time. Bond traders are nearly locked in on a quarter-point rate cut next Wednesday afternoon, so even a hot report probably won't sway the Fed. What's more, being a September flash, it's about as fresh as last week's turkey and pumpkin pie at this point.

Checking the Consumer's Holiday Spirit

Potentially more interesting will be the first read of December consumer sentiment on Friday (December 5). The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers is no longer as much of a volatility catalyst as it once was, but in light of robust retail activity leading into and after Black Friday, we'll see if vibes have turned merrier.

Also affecting households' financial feelings may be the resumption of government assistance programs (on the lower end) and a stock market recovery after recent volatility (on the higher end). And we can't talk about the consumer without a nod to the K-shaped economy, which is the theme of the holiday shopping season.

Inflation Under Wraps

Peeking into next week, the New York Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations survey prints at 11 a.m. ET on Monday, December 8. Individuals and business owners have come to expect elevated consumer price increases—near 3% annually across timeframes—but there have been interesting developments in traded inflation markets.

Interest-rate swaps on the year-ahead inflation rate suggest a slower rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the markets are correct, a 2.6% CPI annual pace will be seen by this time in 2026. Above the Fed's 2% target? Yes. But it would be an improvement from today's 3% level (as of September).

It's little solace for embattled American entrepreneurs, however. Tuesday's (December 9) main macro events include the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey (the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the September report), a final update to Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index.

The NFIB report contains clues and nuggets about the employment situation, inflation, and broader economic perceptions among the growth drivers of the American workforce. A positive turn in this "soft" data could lead to improved "hard" data later.

Gather Round the Fed's Fireplace

All of it leads into the Fed's Wednesday (December 10) afternoon interest rate decision. A third consecutive quarter-point cut is expected, but that might not be the most important thing. More dramatic may be the makeup of the 12 votes.

Assuming a 25-basis-point cut, there could be at least a few hawkish dissenters. Chair Powell has done an effective job of herding the cats, so to speak, throughout his tenure as Fed chief, but there are now outspoken doves and hawks who are not afraid to buck the consensus.

Tidings From the Dot Plot and Some Missing Data Under the Macro Tree

Powell's press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and he may have his work cut out for himself to form a cohesive logic for cutting in the face of stubborn inflation. The media Q&A could be muddled, but investors have other details to parse—these come via the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), otherwise known as the dot plot. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) jots down its latest forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment.

The voting members may be better served by simply waiting eight days to decide the next step along their monetary policy path. Why? The fresh November Employment Situation report hits the following Tuesday morning (December 16), while November CPI is released on Thursday, December 18. Alas, there are no plans to push back the December Fed gathering. So, before Christmas, we should have a decent bead on the Fed's January move.

Absent from the Economic Calendar is the Retail Sales report. The U.S. Census Bureau has not announced when it plans to publish November numbers.

The Bottom Line

As the holiday season wraps up, the economic data stream keeps markets busy. Job reports, consumer sentiment, and inflation readings will give investors plenty to unwrap in the coming days. Along with comments from CEOs at conferences this week and next, the upcoming data deluge and Fed decision will shape how 2025 finishes.

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